---
product_id: 2465504
title: "The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy - What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny"
brand: "william straussneil howe"
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---

# The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy - What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny

**Brand:** william straussneil howe
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## Customer Reviews

### ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Superb and Prophetic
*by T***T on August 13, 2012*

After many instances of prodding from readers, I finally bought and read The Fourth Turning, and I'm sorry that I waited so long. It was a superb read, and it puts into words (340 pages of words, in fact) the general feeling I've had for so long that something big and bad is happening all around us.I want to emphasize at the outset that this isn't some doom 'n' gloom book that came off the presses after all the calamities we've seen over the past decade. It is, in fact, a fifteen-year old book, and I imagine much of it was written around 1995 or so, during the feel-good Clinton years. When the book came out in 1997, the authors made clear that they were currently in the Third Turning, and that the Fourth Turning - the final quarter of a cycle that they postulate recurs throughout modern human history - was coming around 2005 or so.Strauss and Howe write:Over the past five centuries, Anglo-American society has entered a new era - a turning - every two decades or so....Together the four turnings of the saeculum comprise history's seasonal rhythm of growth, naturation, entropy, and destruction:+ The First Turning is a High; an upbeat era of strengthening instutitions and weakening individualism;+ The Second Turning is an Awakening, a passionate era of spirtual upheaval, when the civic order comes under attack from a new values regime;+ The Third Turning is an Unraveling, a downcast era of strrengtening individualism and weakening institutions;+ The Fourth Turning is a Crisis, a decisive era of secular upheaval, when the values regime propels the replacement of the old civic order with a new one.As they anticipated the next "Turning", they referenced its start point around 2005, in the middle of the "Oh-Oh" decade (which I've now heard referred to as the "Naughts"):The next Fourth Turning is due to begin shortly after the new millenium, midway through the Oh-Oh decade. Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood...Political and economic trust will implode...severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation, and empire...the very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.I would suggest, and I'm sure many would agree, that the attacks of 9/11 were the "sudden spark". Early in the book, the authors describe how there have, through human history, been three general ideas about the path of time in our lives - chaotic, cyclical, linear. The entire basis of the book is that the cyclical perception of the world is the accurate one, and the human species continues to move its way through this quartet of cycles, totalling about the length of a human life, called a Saeculum. We are presently in The Millennial Saeculum, which is broken down into these four parts:+ The American High (1946-1964);+ The Consciousness Revolution (1964-1984);+ The Culture Wars (1984-2005?);+ The Millennial Crisis (which, when the book was published, was yet to arrive)If you consider the four quarters of a Saeculum to the time "axis" of the grid, the other is made of the human archetypes, whose character depends on their generation as well as what portion of the Saeculum is currently running. The present archetypes are described as follows:+ The Boom Generation (Prophet archetype, born 1943-1960);+ The 13th Generation (Nomad archetype, born 1961-1981);+ The Millennial Generation (Hero archetype, born 1982-?);+ The Artist archetype is being born nowI'm a member of what they dub the 13th Generation, so-called simply because it is the 13th generation of Americans that they track.Many of the predictions about the near-future that were offered are eerily accurate, whereas others are embarassingly wrong, such as the supposition that, to celebrate the year 2000, "Others will board a chartered Concorde just after midnight and zoom back through time from the third millennium to the second." Of course, I can't fault the authors for not anticipating the fiery end of the Concorde fleet!I am, of course, most interested in the Crisis era, since that is supposedly what we're in the midst of living; the authors declare the Crisis can be constructed with this morphology:+ A Crisis era begins with a catalyst - a startling event (or sequence of events) that produces a sudden shift in mood+ Once catalyzed, a society achieves a regeneracy - a new counter-entropy that reunifies and reenergizes civic life.+ The regenerated society propels toward a climax - a crucial moment that confirms the death of the old order and birth of the new.+ The climax culminates in a resolution - a triumphant or tragic conclusion that separates the winners from losers, resolves the big public questions, and establishes the new orderHere again, I would think most would agree the 9/11 attacks would serve the definition of "catalyst" quite well. As the book draws to a close, it delves into greater detail about what could be forthcoming from the perspective of someone writing in 1997. I've emphasized a few items in bold:Sometime around the year 2005, perhaps a few years before or after, America will enter the Fourth Turning.....a spark will ignite a new mood...In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party......the following circa-2005 scenarios might seem plausible:+ A global terrorist group blows up an aircraft and announces it possesses portable nuclear weapons......Congress declares war.....Opponents charge that the president concocted the emergency for political purposes.+ An impasse over the federal budget reaches a stalemate. The President and Congress both refuse to back down, triggering a near-total government shutdown.....Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling. Default looms. Wall Street panics.As superb as these projections were, the authors hasten to add - ironically - "It's highly unlikely that any one of these scenarios will actually happen." On the contrary, these guesses about the future (which, let's face it, required the authors to really go out on a limb) were excellent. They continue (although I am using ellipses to replace large chunks of text, since I'm not in the mood to re-type an entire book):Time will pass, perhaps another decade, before the surging mood propels America to the Fourth Turning's grave moment of opportunity and danger: the climax of the Crisis.....the molten ingredients of the climax, which could include the following:+ Economic distress, with public debt in default, entitlement trust funds in bankruptcy, mounting poverty and unemployment, trade wars, collapsing financial markets, and hyperinflation (or deflation)+ Social distress....+ Cultural distress......+ Technology distress, with cryptoanarchy, high-tech oligarchy, and biogenetic chaos+ Ecological distress....+ Political distress....+ Military distress.......This is a thoughtful, well-articulated, and engrossing book. As with any text that makes broad sociological assertions and generalizations, the authors have opened themselves up to plenty of criticism about the plausibility of their prophecy. Taken as a whole, I think this book provide an enlightening blueprint of both the present and the near-future. I strongly recommend it.

### ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Prophetic
*by T***P on February 17, 2021*

What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with DestinyI have tried to understand the meaning of the Trump presidency; I have followed the news, listened to psychics on YouTube, even watched tarot readers from Australia. Tarot reader “Ellie dreams down under” mentioned The Fourth Turning as a significant book.The Fourth Turning, An American Prophecy by William Strauss and Neil Howe, gives reassurance because it explains the nature of our current politics. There is nothing mystical in the analysis nor does the book reassure readers that our current crisis will necessarily end well. We are, however, reassured that current events are part of a generational historic pattern that, despite stress and destruction has, in the past, ended well for society. The authors ultimately show that there are actions that we can take to prepare for “The Fourth Turning.”The authors state that English history is divided into seven 80 year “Saeculum,” from the Fifteenth Century to today. Each “Saeculum” is divided into four 20 year “Turnings;” approximately the length of birth to young adulthood, then adulthood, late middle age and finally old age. Four “Turnings,” 20 year units, add to 80 years, a “Saeculum,” the length of a long human life.The text uses extensive cultural and historical material to support the chronological sequence of seven “Saeculum,” beginning with the Wars of the Roses (1458 to 1487) and ending with the “Millennial Saeculum” today.Not all “Turnings” follow the 20 year division precisely. Strauss and Howe argue that the “Civil War Saeculum” was eleven years short, (1794-1863) because intense regional factionalism heated prematurely in the late 1850s with Kansas, Harpers Ferry, Dred Scott and the Underground Railroad. They argue that the Civil War might not have been so violent if it had come later when passions were not so high. This is a fascinating idea though I can’t imagine the Civil War going any other way even if delayed.Our current “Millennial Saeculum,” our own time, extends from 1946 to 2026. The authors state that “If the crisis catalyst comes on schedule, around the year 2005, then the climax will be due around 2020, the resolution around 2026.” (p. 299) The Fourth Turning was published in 1997 making this a stunning prediction.I take the climax of the “Millennial Saeculum” to be the invasion of the Capitol on January 6, 2020. I believe that the resolution will come with the next presidential election in November 2024 and inauguration in January 2025.I was born in 1945 at the beginning of the Boom Generation. I grew up in “...Sputnick-era schooling, Beaver Cleaver friendliness and Father Knows Best family order.” (p.137) Americans had won WW II and the GI’s were pleased to return home to grow society. I was a child of the “First Turning;” “The American High,” 1946-1964. I started college as a math major to beat the Russians in the space race but soon switched my major to theater arts.In November 1963 Kennedy was shot and the nation shifted into the “Second Turning,” 1964-1984, which the authors term “The Awakening,” a passionate era of spiritual upheaval. What an exciting time to be in theater. Everywhere, it seemed, theater companies worked passionately to rebirth society through performances. “The Unraveling,” 1984-2005, lay ahead with darkening incivility and growing violence. Now we enter the “Fourth Turning”, “The Millennial Crisis”, a stage of our lives yet to be lived.Importantly, Strauss and Howe offer seasonality as a key idea that should be followed by politicians and citizens. Seasonality is the predictable process of growth from inception to fruition, from idea to the realization of that idea, from planting to harvesting.Seasonality is key to solving societal problems. Just as there is a process, procedure and timeline for diagnosing and curing physical ills so there is, on a larger and existential plane, a natural, social, and psychic process of movement toward health. I grew up during “The American High” largely unaware of institutional racism or sexism because these were part of the societal stasis of “The American High.” I witnessed “The Awakening,” an explosion in the arts addressing a range of social ills as I ended graduate school and entered the teaching profession. “The Awakening” required cultural experimentation and youth revolt in reaction to “The American High.”We are now in a dark turning, “The Unraveling,” a time of distrust in government and a polarized population. Our “Fourth Turning” is projected by Strauss and Howe to be resolved, for good or ill, by the next presidential election. It is as if society holds a single personality during each “Turning.” We are deeply troubled now. Hopefully society will together face the problems ahead of us in 2026. Seasonality is an important tool to help us understand this phenomenon and make sense of the time in which we live.

### ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Historically accurate and prophetic but a bit tedious at times
*by T***N on December 22, 2012*

This book is very intresting and gives me much to reflect about now that the end of the Mayan Calendar did not produce the End of Days (no complaint there!). The authors provide an excellent description of 80-100 year cycles divided into four phases or "turnings." The book describes these cycles over the last few hundred years in the western world and their theory makes sense and is validated by their presentation of history. As I understand, both authors are historians and sociologists. When the historians are at work, I find the book readable and interesting. When the sociologists are at work it begins to be pedantic and way too involved in defining generations seeking what? I never really got why the varied and myriad systems of defining what is a generation were important. Perhaps it is my lack of intellecutal horsepower! All in all, I think that the book is valuable if one desires to understand the otherwise confusing shifts in society which most adults in the western world have experienced given that we haveprobably lived through at least two cycles. I recommend the book; please don't allow my disinterest in the defintion and identifcation of generations put you off from reading it. There is a lot of value in the overall book.

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